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The leaders of a revolutionary movement may pursue certain ideological goals, but gaining the support of the masses for such a movement requires meeting their economic and social expectations.
During the Revolution of 1978, Iran devoted a large part of its propaganda to the promise of change in the living conditions of the people through the distribution of oil revenues, free electricity and water supply and adequate housing in an equal and prosperous society, while the sponsors of the revolution distributed goods. Inexpensive and even free, they showed a corner of life in the Islamic system.
In the thirty-fifth year of the victory of the revolution, one can ask what situation the revolution was trying to change, what progress has been made in practice during these three decades to the economic promises of the revolution and what is the prospect of Iran’s economy in the coming years?
The king’s economy
Iran’s economy, which has suffered from inactivity and intermittent recession since the military occupation in World War II, has gradually improved since the early 1940s with a series of social and economic reforms and the implementation of several balanced development programs, and the expansion of new manufacturing and service sectors. Economic and, as a result, provided a gradual reduction of class differences through the expansion of the urban middle class.
Arrow Factory
Image source, MEHR
Image description,
Years after the fall of the monarchy, production units continued to form the main body of the industrial sector
The rapid rise in crude oil prices since the beginning of the next decade has eliminated the currency shortage as one of the major bottlenecks in economic development, and in the middle of the same decade a major jump in world oil prices provided the country with huge investment opportunities. Natural and human richness and political will for development leave no doubt that Iranians will be the first nation of the Third World and Iran will be the first Muslim country to join the ranks of the advanced nations of the world.
The question posed by many scholars after the Islamic Revolution was why the move towards economic development, instead of satisfying and optimism of the Iranian people, led to a negative reaction, "revolutionary anger" and the fall of the "development" regime. ?
In response to this question, some scholars said that the Shah’s decision to revise the Fifth Development Plan, which led to rapid revenue growth, created new expectations in the people that the government was unable to meet. As a result, the gap between the expectations of the people and the possibilities of the government frustrated the nation and paved the way for the revolution.
Such an analysis may not be in itself inaccurate, but from a more comprehensive perspective, the 1978 revolution showed that efforts for economic development would not be successful unless accompanied by the modernization of cultural, social, and political structures within a democratic framework.
For this reason, shortly after the Islamic Revolution, development scholars in Iran, frustrated by common patterns of development and concerned about halting their country’s progress, introduced the concept of "comprehensive development planning" and emphasized that economic development, whether in The framework of the free market, whether in the form of centralized government planning, will not be achieved without a "corresponding transformation" in other aspects of social life.
Their argument was that the developments resulting from economic development would certainly provoke a negative reaction from those who owed their political and social base and privileges to the underdeveloped structure, and to maintain these privileges, to the best of their ability, including inciting the people to oppose the New Government. use. To thwart such a reaction, it is necessary for the government to give the people the opportunity to express themselves, criticize, participate and freely support the process of formulating and implementing development plans by creating a democratic structure.
Three decades after the Iranian revolution, to prove this point, we can compare the situation in Iran with a country like South Korea, which started the process of industrialization with a similar pattern to Iran, but much later and by relying on small assembly industries, but was able to Achieve results with the help of proportionate political reforms.
