in this episode we talk about a forecast by the country’s shah who that he saw what will be happen in the region due to the economic and financial relations.
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The convergence hypothesis refers to the faster growth of per capita income of poor countries than rich countries and the reduction of income inequality between countries during the transition process. The formation of convergence between countries has various forms, one of which is club convergence. The trend of per capita income of the countries of the Mena region is such that it seems that club convergence is taking shape among these countries. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the formation of club convergence between the countries of this region in the period (1970-2003). For this research, combined data and time series of MENA countries in the desired period and beta convergence model and distribution model or Sigma convergence have been used. The result of calculating the cross-sectional variance in the Sigma convergence model indicates a decrease in per capita income inequality in the region during the study period (1970-2003), although this decrease was not uniform. Since the late 1980s, per capita income inequality between countries in the region has increased. Also, the estimation of the coefficient of the imaginary variable threshold (the variable separating countries into two income groups above and below the cross-sectional average) in the beta convergence model confirms the separation in per capita income of countries in the region in the form of two income groups. Therefore, two results, the prediction of the formation of club convergence in the Mena region can not be ruled out.
Estimated total factor productivity (TFP) of the countries in the region, using the panel data method, for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s also shows that the estimated TFPs are splitting into two groups. Therefore, according to Koah (2000), it can be stated that one of the main reasons for the formation of club convergence in the region is the separation in their total factor productivity (TFP).